It’s a great day here in Alexandria!  I’ve travelled extensively with my wife and the Marine Corps (I was on a C-130 flight crew in three different squadrons)…This IS a fantastic place to live.  Low crime, superb schools, recreational opportunities out your doorstep, lots of retail, plenty of well-built housing stock, jobs…need I say more.  Sales for real estate have been sluggish through the winter, usually normal.  The consumers don’t know that this may be the best time, may be the bottom for the market.  Time will tell.  Wachovia U.S. Economic Forecast dated Feb. 11, 2009 predicts that crude oil prices to be at $41.98/barrel for 1st quarter average in 2009.  Compared with $123.98 for 2nd quarter 2008.    Their forecast shows that Crude Oil costs to stay at or below $45.00 through 4Q 2010.  The Federal Funds Target Rate is at 0.25% ending 4Q 2008 and forecasted through 3Q 2010.  House prices are in check.  Low interest rates, tax credit of $7,500 for first time buyers, fair prices for housing, good supply of available product… forecast data from the National Association of Realtors are for sales to improve from the low of 2008.  That means that supply will start to diminish and housing will start it’s way back up somewhere in 2009/2010.

Some statistics from the National Association of Realtors website.  Economists commentary dated February 4, 2009:  *Real estate value in the aggregate held by households has fallen by nearly $3 trillion in the past two years.  *The most recent data is as of the third quarter 2008 and the aggregate real estate value was $19.1 trillion, down from $21.9 tillion at the end of 2006.  *  The net equity in housing, which is determined by asset value minus mortgage liability, stood at $8.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2008, down from $12.5 tillion at the end of 2005.  *  Despite the recent decline, from a long-term perspective the net equity is considerably higher now than in 1990 when it was $4 tillion and in 1980 when it stood at $2 trillion.