My Wachovia report from April 3, 2009 said that “the personal saving rate has leapt higher over the past six months to about four percent…the personal saving rate has not been as high as it was at the start of 2009, on a sustained basis, since the 1990′s mid-cycle slowdown.  In fact, the saving rate hovered just barely above zero percent from summer 2005 until mid-2008 at the height of the last expansion and into the first part of the downturn.  Despite the current increase in the saving rate, our view is that America still roundly has a culture biased towards consumption, as opposed to saving, that will continue to guide us through this cycle and beyond.  However, for now, consumers seem suitably spooked  by the current state of the economy to increase their own personal reserves.  The saving rate will likely continue to rise for the next several months driven higher by declines or weak growth in consumption as well as near-term tax relief.  These will at least be partially, but not entirely, offset by weak wage and salary income growth as a result of the turmoil in the nation’s labor market.  While the worst of the outright declines in consumption may be behind us at this point, households may adjust to a new long term equilibrium”.

In their April 17, 2009 report; their current statistics backs up the one that I stated in my July 2008 blog  “The Market Today”.  In the July 2008 blog, I quoted that “if the rate of decline continues, we would be at historic levels of about 300,000 unit  one year from now”.  This is in regards to the new homes built but not sold.  The 4.17.09 Wachovia report said that “Sales of new homes will likely continue to struggle during the first half of 2009 as employment, economic concerns and mortgage market troubles outweigh the improvements in overall affordability we have seen.  Declines in completions and in general building activity mean less supply will be coming to the marketplace.  Inventories may return to the “equilibrium” levels of the late 1990′s by early this summer.   There are a number of powerful incentives to purchase a new home in place today, including builder discounts, tax rebates for first-time home buyers and exceptionally low mortgage rates.  (New Homes for Sale:  February 2009 at 330,000)

Existing Home Resales:  Peaked over 7 million in 2005.   February 2009: 4.72 million.

Another quote from the April 2008 report:  “We estimate just 740,000 housing units will be started in 2010; the average during the 2003-2005 bubble period was 1.95 million units”.

U.S. POPULATION CLOCK (4.20.09 at 15:15GMT)  306,255,531.   The February 19th count was 305,849,952.  The difference was 405,579 in two months.