It appears that the inventory is starting to go into it’s fall hibernation.  One of the most interesting statistics about 2009 is the beginning of the decline in inventory.   If you read back in my blog, you will find the peak inventory numbers going back to 2005 for residential listings in our mls system.  But, I will save you the time and print them here.  These numbers are the highest numbers of inventory recorded that year on that date.

  • 2005:  9.25.05/482 Residential Homes Listed – 10.6.05/233 Lakehomes Listed
  • 2006:  6.30.06/657 Residential Homes Listed – 7.26.06/375 Lakehomes Listed
  • 2007:  7.13.07/663 Residential Homes Listed – 7.30.07/417 Lakehomes Listed – 8.29.07/531 Lakelots Listed
  • 2008:  8.28.08/658 Residential Homes Listed – 8.13.08/402 Lakehomes Listed – 7.22.08/459 Lakelots Listed
  • 2009:  8.28.09/616 Residential Homes Listed – 7.24.09/405 Lakehomes Listed – 7.24.09/420 Lakelots Listed

These numbers show total inventory in the Local Mls system.  It gives a good read that the total inventory declined by over 6% this year from last year.  That’s good news for sellers/owners of real estate (economics 101-supply and demand).   It may start and turn the corner into a sellers market from this point forward.

From 2005, our inventory spiked upward almost 27%.  From 2004, it’s probably between 40-50% (I don’t have the peak inventory numbers from 2004).  This mad dash to sell created the bubble even here in Alexandria.  Thank God for our corporations that have kept everyone employed.

Once folks find out what their home will really sell for in this market, they may be less inclined to list and we may see some more inventory reductions in the future.   The market has definitely taken it’s toll on one’s equity.  There ain’t no White Knight going to save you.  This is a SERIOUS market…if you don’t HAVE to sell, my advice is to stay out of the marketplace.  If you have to sell, be prepared to list at a price that will make it sell.  Otherwise your wasting your time…and adding frustration to your life…and your agent’s. 

This market will turn around into a SELLERS market.  The Buyers are in firm control for the moment.  This won’t last much longer.  The Buyers have had a grip since 2005, I can sense that grip starting to loosen.   It might take another year or two (maybe longer), but it will happen.   But for now, the Buyers will tell you what they are willing to pay for it.  Not the Seller and Not the Agent.  The Real Estate Agent is supposed to know what Buyers will pay for a piece of property in a reasonable length of time (180 days or less?) and then advise their client on what that is.  The Sellers then only need to decide if they are going to sell it or not.  Picking an arbitrary unrealistic number is not smart on anyone’s part.  Sometimes the agents fall victim to their seller client (I know that I have) and we let the client tell the agent and the Buyer what the Buyers are going to pay.  Henceforth, the back log in inventory and the declining sales.

I do believe that 2010 will be a lot smarter year.  I think all of us Americans have learned a lot from this decline.  What will the new economy look like with this new found knowledge?

Statistical information provided from the Greater Alexandria Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.