In reporting the sales statistics, I really like looking at the data.  No matter what it says, nonetheless, it is still data.  How we use the data to make decisions is what counts.  I will continuously report the market data as long as I can.  I have always found the Alexandria, MN real estate market to be stimulating and upbeat.  This data might show sales statistics that are down.  So what does that mean and what are you going to do about it?  As statistics go, they won’t always be down (once at zero, they have to go up…even one sale at that point would be 100% increase) nor will they always be up; but knowing where they are is powerful in decision making.  What will the data be like, say  4 years from now?    There’s a parable about wealth under your feet, I read it about 28 years ago.  The gist of the parable is about two brothers, one left home searching for riches and the other stayed home toiling the soil.  After several decades, the brother came home, broke and penniless.  The other one discovered, I think, it was diamonds under the soil many years later.

These Lakehome statistics are from the Alexandria, MN MLS system.  They are refined to Douglas County sales in that system only.

3rd Quarter 2009:  29 lakehomes sold.    Total for 1st three quarters in 2009 is 54 lakehomes sold.  This represents a 14.71% decline against the same period in 2008.      Of the 54 sales,  41 sales(75.9%) have been under $400k…4 sales have been at or over $600,000…No sales over $800,000.      Of the 54 sales, 30 sales of the first 3 quarters had an Alexandria, MN address.  Of the 30,  9 (30% of the 30 sales) of them were over $400,000/ Miltona address had 6 of the 54 sales, Brandon address had 8 of the 54 sales)

3rd Quarter 2008:  34 lakehomes sold.     Total for 1st three quarters in 2008 is 61 lakehomes sold…36(59%) sales have been under $400k…7 sales were over $600,000…Two sales over $800,000  (44 sales or 72% had an Alexandria, MN address.  22(50% of the 44 sales) of them were over $400,000/Miltona address had 9 of the 61 sales, Brandon address had 1 of the 61 sales.

So far, overall sales have shown a decline from 2008 with the 2009 market.  If you compare this year over the previous years, unless 4th quarter spikes up, we are going to see a sales volume somewhere relative to the 1996-1997 market (see chart below).  In 2008, we did 21 sales in the 4th quarter.  So far, in 2009 it shows 5 closed sales….and 15 pending  (7 over $400,000) in the 4th quarter.

If you have been reading my blog since the first of the year, you will see that my printings were consistent with my reading that the 4th quarter could be the strongest quarter of the year.  The past three quarters have all been a negative posting over the previous years numbers.  In the residential and lakehome columns, you may see a positive posting for the fourth quarter 2009 over 2008.  You will also see that the decline in sales, since the runup began back in the mid-1990′s, that reached it’s crescendo in 2004 and the subsequent fall to the levels of 2008 and 2009.  I have been saying all year that I believe 2009 will be the bottom.  With a potential uptick in the 4th Quarter 2009 over 2008, you will start to see that “trough”.  Keep an eye on the Consumer Confidence Report.  An upswing of 20 points will help to put my real estate market on solid footing.

Another point; the Buyers started gaining control of this market in 2005 and they currently believe that they have a full choke on it.  Their grip will weaken  as this market finds it’s bottom, which it (market) may be doing right now.

LAKEHOME SALES CLOSED IN DOUGLAS COUNTY

  • 1995                        56
  • 1996                        66
  • 1997                        106
  • 1998                        132
  • 1999                        141
  • 2000                      127
  • 2001                       113
  • 2002                      136
  • 2003                      137
  • 2004                      152
  • 2005                      120
  • 2006                      107
  • 2007                      121
  • 2008                      82
  • 2009                      59 so far (15 pending)

If you’d like some other info, let me know.  Also, feel free to respond to my blog.  Some interaction would be good, it’s a little lonely out here in cyberspace.

 

Market data from Greater Alexandria Area Assoociation of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.