Current Lot Inventory: Alexandria, MN

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In the Greater Alexandria Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, I have retrieved the following lot data for listing inventory as of today (1.31.11). If you go back to January 6 and January 7, 2011, you will find sales data that pertain to lots. The listing inventory is excessive compared to the current rate of sales.

547 Total Listings
400 Listings in Douglas County
265 Listings w/Alexandria address
147 Listings w/Alexandria address and City Sewer
43 Listings w/Alexandria address, City Sewer and City Water

197 Total Listings
122 Listings in Douglas County
85 Listings w/Alexandria address
2 Listings w/Alexandria address and City Sewer

330 Total Listings
237 Listings in Douglas County
119 Listings w/Alexandria address
55 Listings w/Alexandria address and City Sewer
15 Listings w/Alexandria address, City Sewer and City Water

50 Total Listings
44 Listings in Douglas County
42 Listings w/Alexandria address
19 Listings w/Alexandria address and City Sewer
15 Listings w/Alexandria address, City Sewer and City Water

Source: Greater Alexandria Area Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

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Record Home Sales in 1999

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1999.HUD report.BlogIt wasn’t that long ago, New home sales totalled 904,000 (now we are at 400,000 something). Existing home sales totalled 5,197,000 (approximately 4,908,000 in 2010. 5,156,000 in 2009). Interesting stuff…

Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

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Good Morning, Alexandria, MN: Market tidbits…

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Consumer Loan Balances were down 16.3 percent from the peak in February 2009, having been on a steady decline since that time. Still, consumer spending has been holding up recently, growing 3.8 percent in November , the strongest year-over-year growth rate since May.
Personal income growth has also been strong, up 3.4 percent year-over-year in November.
Consumption has been growing faster than income recently, leading to a decline in the saving rate from 6.3 percent in June to 5.3 percent in November.
While savings have fallen to $614 billion from $720 billion a few months ago, savings are still nearly four times higher than they were at the dawn of the recession.
The November trade numbers put year-to-date total exports up 16.7 percent in nominal value terms over the same period in 2009. If exports continue to grow at this pace for for four more years, U.S. exports will more than double by 2014.

Source: Wells Fargo Securitites

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Housing Stock in the United States

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US Housing Stock.2010Ever wondered how many housing units there were in the United States? I did a little research and have came up with the following data. At the end of the third quarter in 2010, the estimate of the total housing stock, 130,681,000 units, was up a statistically insignificant 0.1 percent from the second quarter of 2010 and up a statistically innsignificant 0.5 percent from the third quarter of 2009.
As of this morning, there are an estimated 311,963,071 people in the United States. That would equate to 2.39 people per housing unit.
If you look at the accompanying chart, you will see that of all the available housing, there are approximately 85.64% that are occupied. I am not sure where that needs to go to find some equilibrium where the new construction of single-family homes begins.

Source: Census Bureau, Department of Commerce

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EXISTING HOME SALES In the United States of America

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Existing Home Sales.US.1969to2010These are the numbers for existing homes sales in this country since 1969. I have uploaded the chart from the HUD website as well. (Units in Thousands)

2010. 4,908 (pending)
2009. 5,156
2008. 4,913
2007. 5,652
2006. 6,478
2005. 7,076
2004. 6,778
2003. 6,175
2002. 5,632
2001. 5,335
2000. 5,174
1999. 5,183
1998. 4,966
1997. 4,371
1996. 4,167
1995. 3,852
1994. 3,886
1993. 3,739
1992. 3,432
1991. 3,145
1990. 3,186
1989. 3,290
1988. 3,594
1987. 3,526
1986. 3,565
1985. 3,214
1984. 2,868
1983. 2,719
1982. 1,990
1981. 2,419
1980. 2,973
1979. 3,827
1978. 3,986
1977. 3,650
1976. 3,064
1975. 2,476
1974. 2,272
1973. 2,334
1972. 2,252
1971. 2,018
1970. 1,612
1969. 1,594

Source: National Association of Realtors, US Housing and Urban Development

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Consumer Confidence Rises Solidly in January

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Consumer Confidence jumped 7.3 points in January to 60.6. All of the key components increased solidly during the month, making this the best report for consumer confidence since the onset of the financial crisis.

More consumers now appear to believe the economy is on the mend. The 60.6 reading is the highest level since May 2010.

Source: Conference Board

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Existing Home Sales…Part Three

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Sales of existing homes rose to an annual pace of 5.28 million in December, the highest level since May. Sales of existing homes rose 12.3 percent in December, which was well above expectations. Gains were broad based with increases in both single-family and condo sales. Distressed transactions, however, still account for a significant portion of total sales at 36 percent, which is an increase from 33 percent in November. Investors accounted for 20 percent of transactions. All-cash sales also remain elevated at 29 percent.

The oversupply of existing homes continues to be a substantial obstacle for the housing market. Single-family inventories fell 5.6 percent in December to a 3.02 million-unit pace. At the current rate of sales, it would take 7.8 months to clear the supply of homes. In the coming months, existing home sales should continue to increase modestly as private sector employment growth accelerates.

Source: US Dept of Commerce, FHFA, National Association of Realtors, Wells Fargo Securities

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Existing Home Sales Resume Uptrend with Stable Prices.Part Two

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…The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $170,600 in November, up 0.4 percent from November 2009. Distressed homes have been a fairly stable market share, accounting for 33 percent of sales in November, they were 34 percent in October and 33 percent in November 2009.

Foreclosures, which accounted for two-thirds of the distressed sales share, sold at a median discount of 15 percent in November, while short sales were discounted 10 percent in comparison with traditional home sales.

Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 4.0 percent to 3.71 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.5 month supply at the current sales pace, down from 10.5 month supply in October.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.30 percent in November from a record low 4.23 percent in October, the rate was 4.88 percent in November 2009.

Investors accounted for 19 percent of transactions in November, also unchanged from october, but are up from 12 percent in November 2009; the balance of sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales were at 31 percent in November, up from 29 percent in October and 19 percent a year ago. “The elevated level of all-cash transactions continues to reflect tight credit market conditions,” Yun said.

Single-family home sales rose 6.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November from 3.89 million in October, but are 27.3 percent below a surge to 5.71 million cyclical peak in November 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $171,300 in November, which is 1.2 percent above a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales declined 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000 in November from 540,000 in October, and are 32.2 percent below the 782,000-unit tax credit rush one year ago. The median existing condo price was $165,300 in November, down 5.5 percent from November 2009. “At the current stage of the housing cycle, condos are offering better deals for bargain hunters,” Yun said.

Regionally, existing home sales in the Northeast rose 2.7 percent to an annual pace of 770,000 in November but are 33.0 percent below the cyclical peak in November 2009. The median price in the Northeast was $242,500, which is 9.2 percent higher than a year ago.

Existing home sales in the Midwest increased 6.4 percent in November to a level of 1.00 million but are 35.1 percent below the year-ago surge. The mdeian price in the Midwest was $138,900, down 1.1 percent from November 2009.

In the South, existing home sales rose 2.9 percent to an annual pace of 1.76 million in November but are 26.1 percent below the tax credit surge in November 2009. The median price in the South was $148,000, down 2.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West jumped 11.7 percent to an annual level of 1.15 million in November but are 19.0 percent below the sales peak in November 2009. The median price in the West was $212,500, up 0.4 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors, “the Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Source: National Association of Realtors

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Existing Home Sales Resume Uptrend with Stable Prices. Part One

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This article came out of the National Association of Realtors Economic Research Division website. The article was dated December 22, 2010.
“Existing-home sales got back on an upward path in November, resuming a growth trend since bottoming in July, according to the National Associaton of Realtors.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops, rose 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in November from 4.43 million in October, but are 27.9 percent below the cyclical peak of 6.49 million in November 2009, which was the initial deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit.

LAWRENCE YUN, NAR chief economist is hopeful for 2011. “Continuing gains in home sales are encouraging, and the positive impact of steady job creation will more than trump some negative impact from a modest rise in mortgage interest rates, which remain historically favorable, he said. Yun added that home buyers are responding to improved affordability conditions. The relationship recently between mortgage interest rates, home prices and family income has been the MOST FAVORABLE ON RECORD FOR BUYING A HOME SINCE WE STARTED MEASURING IN 1970, he said. Therefore, the market is recovering and we should trend up to a healthy, sustainable level in 2011.”

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Interest Rates

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It appears that after last summers record low postings of home interest rates, that the rate may be moving back upward. Here are some recent interest rate offerings at my company from a lender…

January 27, 2010: 4.875% Conventional 30-Year Fixed
February 3, 2010: 4.875% ”
April 21, 2010: 4.875% ”
June 4, 2010: 4.75% ”
June 24, 2010: 4.375% ”
July 9, 2010: 4.625% ”
July 22, 2010: 4.375% ”
October 22, 2010: 4.00% ”
November 10,2010: 4.125% ”
December 21,2010: 4.625% ”
January 19, 2011: 4.75% ”

So how much longer before we see the 5% range again? As long as the housing market can sustain a sales pace at or above what it was, you can expect the rates to go up.

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