StoneManor of Alexandria, MN is BREAKING GROUND!!!

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Tidbits from Tiff

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I receive this from a local lender, Craig Tiffany…I find the information well displayed…quick and easy to read. Thought I’d share:

For the week of September 24, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 39
>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK… “If we did all we were capable of doing, we would literally astonish ourselves.”–Thomas A. Edison, American inventor

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… People indeed are astonished at how the housing market has started to recover and last week’s data just kept the ball rolling. Builders are busier as housing starts are up 2.3% from July to August. They’re now at a 750,000 annual rate, UP 24.5% over August 2011. Housing starts have been rising on an annual basis for the last 11 months and they’re now UP 57% from their April 2009 bottom. No wonder builder confidence in September was up for the fifth month in a row, hitting its highest level since 2006.

August Existing Home Sales were up 7.8% over July, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million units. These sales are UP 9.3% for the year, while the national median price for all housing types is UP 9.5% versus a year ago, at $187,400. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is forecasting overall home sales should be up 8% to 10% for 2012. The inventory of existing homes for sale is currently down to a 6.1-month supply, a level thought to favor neither buyers nor sellers.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… To get more done, focus on the critical tasks that directly generate revenue, while eliminating, delegating, outsourcing or automating overhead activities like administration, travel planning, meetings and the like.

>> Review of Last Week
JUST A LITTLE SLIP… Wall Street saw a very slight dip in prices, its first weekly drop for September. But this comes after two huge upside weeks, so many analysts felt it was pretty good to get through the five trading days with stock prices virtually flat. Investors were happy to see the Fed pump more money into the system with the latest quantitative easing program. But there is still, as one observer put it, “more bad news than good in the economic data stream.”

The week in fact got off to a bad start as the Empire State index of manufacturing activity in the New York region dropped to its worst level since April 2009. Most glaring among the disappointing items was higher than expected weekly initial jobless claims, hitting 382,000 for the second week in a row. Thank goodness for the good housing news, covered above. On a cautionary note, 103 S&P 500 companies have provided a Q3 earnings outlook and 80% are below Wall Street consensus estimates. That’s the most negative corporate earnings outlook since Q1 of 2006.

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.1%, to 13579; the S&P 500 was down 0.4%, to 1460; and the Nasdaq was down 0.1%, to 3180.

As expected, the bond market is getting a boost from the Fed’s s latest quantitative easing program (“QE3”), in which they’ll buy tens of billions in mortgage bonds each month with no time limit. That should keep mortgage bond prices up and mortgage rates down for a while longer. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP .96, at $107.03. Last week, national average mortgage rates were at or near record lows. Demand for purchase loans was up a seasonally adjusted 8% over the prior week and up 7% versus a year ago.

DID YOU KNOW?… Quantitative easing is a monetary policy that increases the money supply by buying securities, such as mortgage bonds. This floods financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

>> This Week’s Forecast
NEW HOME SALES, PENDING HOME SALES, GDP, INFLATION… This week features a good range of economic data. Wednesday should show August New Home Sales continuing their slow but steady rise. August Pending Home Sales are also forecast up but at a slower rate, still indicating a gain in existing home sales a couple of months out.

Thursday’s third estimate of Q2 GDP is predicted to be as disappointing as the first two, with anemic annual growth of 1.7%. But Friday’s Core PCE Prices should show inflation is still well within the Fed’s guidelines.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Sep 24 – Sep 28

Date
Time (ET)
Release
For
Consensus
Prior
Impact

Tu
Sep 25
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Sep
63.0
60.6
Moderate

W
Sep 26
08:30
New Home Sales
Aug
380K
372K
Moderate

W
Sep 26
10:30
Crude Inventories
09/22
NA
8.534M
Moderate

Th
Sep 27
08:30
Initial Unemployment Claims
09/22
380K
382K
Moderate

Th
Sep 27
08:30
Continuing Unemployment Claims
09/15
3.270M
3.272M
Moderate

Th
Sep 27
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Aug
–5.1%
4.1%
Moderate

Th
Sep 27
08:30
GDP-Third Estimate
Q2
1.7%
1.7%
Moderate

Th
Sep 27
08:30
GDP Deflator-Third Estimate
Q2
1.6%
1.6%
Moderate

Th
Sep 27
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Aug
1.0%
2.4%
Moderate

F
Sep 28
08:30
Personal Income
Aug
0.2%
0.3%
Moderate

F
Sep 28
08:30
Personal Spending
Aug
0.5%
0.4%
HIGH

F
Sep 28
08:30
PCE Prices-Core
Aug
0.1%
0.0%
HIGH

F
Sep 28
09:45
Chicago PMI
Sep
52.8
53.0
HIGH

F
Sep 28
09:55
Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final
Sep
79.0
79.2
Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The Fed now says it’s committed to keeping the Funds Rate at exceptionally low levels “at least through mid-2015.” Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus

Oct 24
0%–0.25%

Dec 12
0%–0.25%

Jan 30
0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus

Oct 24
<1%

Dec 12
<1%

Jan 30
<1%

UIE

This e-mail is an advertisement for Craig Tiffany. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075; WV Div. of Financial Institutions- lender license ML31704 and broker license MB-31703. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 474181

This email was sent to ctiffany@primelending.com.
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Technical College in Alexandria, MN Opens New Housing Project

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Foundation Hall welcomes students back to the corner of 17th Avenue and Jefferson.
I pulled this article from the Alexandria, MN Echo Press newspaper. I believe, as Kevin Kopischke said, that there is a vision for a second building. Having on-site housing is so convenient for the students. Somehow, someway; we need to get the Jefferson School site to the ATC. They can really use that real estate.

Source: Alexandria, MN Echo Press September 21, 2012 edition
One year ago, 318 17th Avenue East in Alexandria was a dirt plot. Today, it’s where students plot their futures in Foundation Hall.

The school year has begun; the grand opening hoopla was held and now it’s time to get down to business – and the hall is doing pretty well.

Director of Student Housing and Foundation Hall Manager Jenny Odland said they are at full occupancy.

“We’re one of the few twoyear colleges in Minnesota to have on-campus housing,” Odland said. “I think the students are very happy here.”

First year students at Alexandria Technical and Community College (ATCC)Shane Martin and Stephanie Hiltner confirmed Odland’s presumption. Martin is a fashion management major and Hiltner is pursuing her associate degree.

“I absolutely love it,” said Martin. “I’m definitely going to be applying next year.”

ROOMIES

Rents have remained the same as listed last fall; $520 per person for a four-bedroom and $570 per person for a two-bedroom suite.

What is not as predicted, is the renter demographic.

Originally, the ATCC Foundation board thought the apartments would be more appealing to women. The majority of renters, 65 percent, are male.

When assigning students to the hall’s 41 rooms, Odland strategically positioned students so majors weren’t clumped together. All four floors of the building are coed but roommates are same-sex.

Prevalent majors are law enforcement, diesel mechanic, child development and the two-year associate degree.

There are a lot of law enforcement students,” Odland said.

Most students moved into the hall on August 25. Hiltner and Martin each had a different experience. Hiltner arrived early and was able to take full advantage of the elevator. Martin arrived later in the day.

“It was kind of hectic,” he said. “But fun,” Hiltner added.

Both are enjoying the college experience and diversity of their roommates.

Although they are studying different subjects, Hiltner said, she and her roommates have similar personalities.

“I love my roommates,” Hiltner said. “I do too,” Martin agreed.

Five resident assistants monitor the hall with one head resident assistant overseeing the crew. Students who live in Foundation Hall can reach an aide 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Proximity to ATCC is one of the conveniences parents liked about the student housing suites, Odland said.

Students don’t have to drive; they can just walk across the street to attend classes. If students do drive, there is ample parking in the shared parking lot with ATCC. Foundation Hall parking is designated by blue line markings.

A landscaping feature to the south of the parking lot sets the hall grounds apart from other buildings in the industrial area. Trees and shrubs will grow atop the mound and provide shading for future generations.

THE LONG HALL

ATCC president Kevin Kopischke prophesied a second building at the groundbreaking ceremony in October 2011. Odland said it will be a few years before that will be evaluated, based on the success of Foundation Hall.

The ATCC Foundation owns the Foundation Hall building that sits in the same location where a student center and bookstore once stood. Kopischke said the center had been on that corner since the 1960s. It was demolished to make way for the new structure.

At the grand opening ceremony, foundation board president Jon Hall said the building far exceeds expectations and hopes for the students and the future of the college.

“Our goal is the financial well-being of the college and supporting the students,” Hall said.

Hall noted that foundation board members come from many backgrounds, but any agendas other than that of the foundation and the college are left at the door when members meet.

“We are lucky that the college and the foundation have the same mission,” Odland said.

Kopischke said there is an aura about Alexandria and the college is pleased to be such an important component of the community – not just in Alexandria, but for all of West Central Minnesota and beyond.

Students seeking residency at Foundation Hall were put on a waiting list after filling out an online application. A lease agreement and criminal background check were required before admittance into the student housing community. For more information on Foundation Hall, call (320) 762-4660 or visit www.alextechhousing.com.

SUITE LIFE

All apartments are fully furnished and decorated in warm colors with designer furniture.

High speed Internet, a 42-inch flat screen TV, cable and all utilities are included in monthly rents.

Rooms have full kitchens and private bedrooms.

Renters have access to a resident assistant 24-hours a day, 7-days a week.

——————————————————————————–

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Douglas County Zoning Ordinance. Effective August 1, 2012

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I have scanned the whole ordinance in to my system if anyone ever wanted to see it. It’s 11mb, not as big as Obamacare, but it’s a lot of paper.

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Consumer Confidence. August 2012

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Consumer Confidence, which had improved in July, declined in August. The index now stands at 60.6, down from 65.4 in July.

Source: Conference Board

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Market Thoughts for the Day

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From Craig Tiffany, this report is good. A Worth Read!

Craig Tiffany
Loan Originator
3333 West Division Street #10
St. Cloud, MN 56301
Phone: (320) 491-9544

For the week of September 17, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 38

>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK… “The two most important requirements for major success are: first, being in the right place at the right time, and second, doing something about it.”–Ray Kroc, creator of McDonald’s

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… Today’s home buyers seem to be in the right place at the right time, as our already super low mortgage rates may go even lower. The impetus for this comes from the Fed’s announcement last Thursday that they will purchase $40 billion a month of mortgage backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This is to keep downward pressure on interest rates to help boost the housing recovery. One observer expects to see “the lowest 30-year rates ever.” Smart buyers will no doubt do something about that.

Economists say the housing market bottomed out this summer and they expect improvement in 2013. Even though Consumer Confidence in August dipped to its lowest level since late 2011, Fannie Mae reported that 73% of Americans who were polled think it’s a good time to buy a home. Harvard University’s recent “State of the Nation’s Housing” report sees “definitive signs of a turnaround.” The situation has improved for sellers too, as lower inventories of homes for sale are making price cuts less common and homes sell for near asking prices.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… You can accomplish wonderful things with a positive comment. Say thank you or offer a compliment whenever you can. Mark Twain quipped, he could live for two months on a good compliment!

>> Review of Last Week
THE FED FIRES UP THE STREET… The Fed’s “quantitative easing” bond buying program mentioned above got investors excited enough to give stocks their second straight week of gains. The Dow ended at its highest close since December 2007, while the Nasdaq reached a level it hadn’t seen since November 2000. Investor optimism aside, many economists doubt that this third money printing effort by the Fed will do all that much to help the economy. Jobs continue to be the big prob, as new unemployment claims hit 382,000 last week, the most in two months.

Industrial production contracted more than expected in August, but, hey, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was up for September, many feel because of rising stocks and home prices. Retail Sales also rose in August, yet so did the cost of living, as reflected by increased gasoline prices. All this was verified by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in up 0.6% for August. Still, the CPI is up only 1.7% from a year ago, well within the Fed’s inflation guidelines.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.2%, to 13593; the S&P 500 was UP 1.9%, to 1466; and the Nasdaq was UP 1.5%, to 3184.

Many bonds got hammered by the run-up in stocks. But the new quantitative easing (“QE3”) announced by the Fed includes mortgage bond purchases, which should keep those prices up and mortgage rates down for a while longer. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP .76, at $106.07. National average mortgage rates remained near record lows. Demand for purchase loans for the week was up a seasonally adjusted 8% over the prior week and up 7% versus a year ago.

DID YOU KNOW?… Initial Unemployment Claims track the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. As that number increases or decreases from week to week, economists gauge how the jobs market is doing.

>> This Week’s Forecast
MANUFACTURING, HOME BUILDING, HOME SALES… After recent slowdowns in factory activity, the New York Empire and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Indexes should improve for September, although both still show contraction.

Wednesday, we’ll get a pretty good picture of the August housing market. Housing Starts are forecast up, reflecting builders’ increasing confidence in developing properties to sell or rent. They do remain cautious, though, as Building Permits are off a bit. Existing Home Sales are predicted up for August, steadily if slowly heading back to 5 million units.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Sep 17 – Sep 21

Date
Time (ET)
Release
For
Consensus
Prior
Impact

M
Sep 17
08:30
NY Empire Manufacturing Index
Sep
–3.0
–5.9
Moderate

W
Sep 19
08:30
Housing Starts
Aug
772K
746K
Moderate

W
Sep 19
08:30
Building Permits
Aug
800K
812K
Moderate

W
Sep 19
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Aug
4.58M
4.47M
Moderate

W
Sep 19
10:30
Crude Inventories
09/15
NA
1.994M
Moderate

Th
Sep 20
08:30
Initial Unemployment Claims
09/15
375K
382K
Moderate

Th
Sep 20
08:30
Continuing Unemployment Claims
09/08
3.292M
3.283M
Moderate

Th
Sep 20
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Sep
–5.0
–7.1
HIGH

Th
Sep 20
10:00
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index
Aug
0.0%
0.4%
Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Last Thursday the Fed extended its commitment to keeping the Funds Rate at exceptionally low levels “at least through mid-2015.” Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus

Oct 24
0%–0.25%

Dec 12
0%–0.25%

Jan 30
0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus

Oct 24
<1%

Dec 12
<1%

Jan 30
<1%

UIE

This e-mail is an advertisement for Craig Tiffany. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075; WV Div. of Financial Institutions- lender license ML31704 and broker license MB-31703. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 474181

This email was sent to ctiffany@primelending.com.

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Here’s a post from Craig Tiffany, again some thoughts on housing appreciation…

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Craig Tiffany
Loan Originator
3333 West Division Street #10
St. Cloud, MN 56301
Phone: (320) 491-9544

For the week of September 10, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 37
>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK… “One never notices what has been done; one can only see what remains to be done.”–Marie Curie, Polish-French physicist and chemist

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… One of the key things remaining to be done to achieve a housing market recovery is a return to appreciating prices. Many observers feel prices have stabilized nationally and now we’re seeing the first signs of some increases. A national real estate website reports the asking prices for homes for sale were up in August for the seventh month in a row. This put them UP 2.3% versus a year ago, the largest year-over-year gain since the housing downturn began.

Excluding foreclosures, asking prices were UP 3.8% nationally for the year. This means they’re rising at a faster rate than wages, so affordability is no longer on the increase. The price gains are broadly based, showing up in 68 of the 100 largest metros tracked. Many feel a big reason for the improved housing market is the reduced inventory of homes for sale. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), inventory fell nationally 23.8% from a year ago July, to 6.4 months.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Productivity isn’t about how much you do, it’s about how much you finish. Each day, do the most important thing first. Then you’ll never have a day when you didn’t get something important done.

>> Review of Last Week
JOBS WEAK, STOCKS STRONG… All the major stock market indexes showed weekly gains that sent them to their highest levels in years, as a weak August jobs report got investors excited that the Fed would start another round of monetary stimulus. August non-farm payrolls increased 96,000, but this netted out to only 55,000 new jobs after downward revisions to June and July. Observers believe some firms are waiting until the election before deciding whether to hire and invest. The unemployment rate did dip to 8.1%, but the labor force declined by 368,000 people who are no longer looking for work.

Economic data was typically inconsistent. Productivity was up in Q2, but only 1.2% higher than last year. August ISM Manufacturing remained below 50, signaling contraction, yet ISM Non-Manufacturing showed the services sector modestly growing. Finally, fears about finances across the pond were calmed when the European Central Bank (ECB) backed up its promise to protect the euro by announcing a large bond-buying plan. This includes unlimited, sterilized purchases of sovereign debt if a country asks for assistance.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.6%, to 13307; the S&P 500 was UP 2.2%, to 1438; and the Nasdaq was UP 2.3%, to 3136.

The run-up in stocks, plus the mixed economic data, put price pressure on bonds. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .71, at $105.31. National average mortgage rates eased, but need to be watched. The ECB’s new bond buying program could hurt bond prices over here and raise mortgage rates. But more quantitative easing from the Fed could include mortgage bond purchases, which would keep mortgage rates down. Stay tuned.

DID YOU KNOW?… FOMC stands for Federal Open Market Committee, a 12-member group who sets credit and interest rate policies for the Federal Reserve System. It is made up of 7 members of the Fed Board of Governors plus Federal Reserve Bank Presidents from 5 of the 12 Fed Districts.

>> This Week’s Forecast
DEFICITS, INFLATION, RETAIL SALES, AND THE FED… The week’s reports begin with Tuesday’s July Trade Balance expected to show a continuing $40+ billion deficit. Thursday, we’ll see if the August Federal Deficit stays well over $100 billion. But inflation seems under control, as measured by both wholesale (Core PPI) and consumer (Core CPI) indexes. Retail Sales are predicted to grow a bit.

The week’s big focus is on Thursday’s FOMC meeting. The question is whether the Fed will begin another round of money printing–“quantitative easing”–to stimulate the economy. In the past they’ve used this to buy mortgage bonds, which keeps mortgage rates down.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Sep 10 – Sep 14

Date
Time (ET)
Release
For
Consensus
Prior
Impact

Tu
Sep 11
08:30
Trade Balance
Jul
–$44.0B
–$42.9B
Moderate

W
Sep 12
10:30
Crude Inventories
09/08
NA
–7.426M
Moderate

Th
Sep 13
08:30
Initial Unemployment Claims
09/08
369K
365K
Moderate

Th
Sep 13
08:30
Continuing Unemployment Claims
09/01
3.300M
3.322M
Moderate

Th
Sep 13
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Aug
1.2%
0.3%
Moderate

Th
Sep 13
08:30
Core PPI
09/01
0.2%
0.4%
Moderate

Th
Sep 13
12:30
FOMC Rate Decision
09/13
0%-0.25%
0%-0.25%
HIGH

Th
Sep 13
14:00
Federal Deficit
Aug
NA
–$134.1B
Moderate

F
Sep 14
08:30
Retail Sales
Aug
0.7%
0.8%
HIGH

F
Sep 14
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Aug
0.8%
0.8%
HIGH

F
Sep 14
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Aug
0.6%
0.0%
HIGH

F
Sep 14
08:30
Core CPI
Aug
0.2%
0.1%
HIGH

F
Sep 14
09:15
Industrial Production
Aug
–0.2%
0.6%
Moderate

F
Sep 14
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Aug
79.2%
79.3%
Moderate

F
Sep 14
09:55
Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Sep
73.3
74.3
Moderate

F
Sep 14
10:00
Business Inventories
Jul
0.4%
0.1%
Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Economists do not expect the Fed to touch the Funds Rate well into the future. The big question about this week’s meeting is whether they will announce another round of quantitative easing. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus

Sep 13
0%–0.25%

Oct 24
0%–0.25%

Dec 12
0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus

Sep 13
<1%

Oct 24
<1%

Dec 12
<1%

UIE

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We are seeing inventories drop here in Alexandria as well…inventory reductions will strart price appreciation.

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